BJP Leads in Assam and Bengal Bypolls, Vijay’s TVK Challenges AIADMK in Tamil Nadu: Key Trends and Political Stakes

Vote counting for six by-elections across Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry began at 8 am on Friday, October 9, 2026. The contests cover five Assembly constituencies and one Lok Sabha seat, with the results attracting national attention because of their potential implications for the BJP, Trinamool Congress (TMC), AIADMK, and Vijay-led TVK.

The bypolls were held on October 6. Early counting trends indicate an advantage for the BJP in Assam and West Bengal, while Tamil Nadu is witnessing a competitive contest between TVK and the AIADMK. The Election Commission of India is publishing the results as counting progresses, and the early leads should not be confused with final victories.

BJP Takes the Lead in Assam’s Nagaon Lok Sabha Bypoll

Assam’s Nagaon constituency is one of the most closely watched contests in this round of by-elections. BJP candidate Devasish Sharma is facing Congress candidate Sibamoni Bora and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) chief Badruddin Ajmal in a three-way contest.

The seat became vacant after former Congress MP Pradyut Bordoloi resigned and joined the BJP. The party has fielded Sharma, a former IAS officer and former Nagaon Deputy Commissioner, in an attempt to strengthen its position in the constituency.

According to Financial Express live updates on October 9, Sharma had established a lead of more than 52,000 votes by 10:51 am, with the BJP candidate reportedly crossing the one-lakh-vote mark. The trend represented a significant advantage for the BJP, although the official final result remained subject to completion of counting.

The contest is politically important because Congress won the Nagaon parliamentary seat in both the 2019 and 2024 general elections. A BJP victory would strengthen the party’s position in Assam, while the performance of Congress and the AIUDF would offer clues about the opposition’s ability to consolidate votes.

West Bengal: BJP Tests Its Strength in Nandigram and Rejinagar

West Bengal’s Assembly bypolls in Nandigram and Rejinagar are being watched as an early electoral test for the BJP government led by Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari.

The BJP ended the TMC’s 15-year rule in the state during the 2026 Assembly elections. The bypolls therefore offer an opportunity to assess whether the BJP can maintain its momentum after coming to power and how effectively the opposition parties can respond to the changed political landscape.

In Nandigram, BJP candidate Hasirani Rath was reported to be leading in early counting. The Rejinagar contest also saw an early advantage for BJP candidate Shankharavh Sarkar, according to live reporting.

The results are especially significant because the opposition landscape in West Bengal has become more fragmented, with Congress and other regional players competing alongside the TMC. Whether the BJP can translate its recent statewide success into victories in individual constituencies will be an important measure of its electoral position.

The polling process was also marked by allegations of voter intimidation and irregularities. Congress demanded repolling in the affected constituencies, while the Election Commission described polling as largely peaceful. These allegations should be distinguished from any final findings by the election authorities.

Tamil Nadu: Vijay’s TVK Faces Its First Major Bypoll Test

Tamil Nadu’s by-elections in Madurantakam and Dharapuram are particularly important for Chief Minister C. Joseph Vijay and his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam.

The two seats became vacant after legislators elected on AIADMK tickets in the April Assembly elections resigned and joined TVK. The bypolls therefore offer a direct test of whether voters will continue supporting those candidates after their move to Vijay’s party.

TVK was leading in Madurantakam, where its candidate K. Maragatham Kumaravel was ahead of the DMK and AIADMK candidates in the early rounds.

The Dharapuram contest, however, proved more competitive. AIADMK candidate K. Banumathi initially held a narrow lead over TVK’s P. Sathyabama before subsequent counting trends shifted. At the time of the Indian Express report published at 10:22 am, the contest remained close, and the final outcome was uncertain.

For Vijay, the results could help determine whether TVK’s popularity can translate into sustained electoral support beyond the Assembly election. For the AIADMK, a strong performance would demonstrate that its traditional voters may not automatically follow legislators who switch parties.

The DMK is also watching the results closely. Even if it does not win either seat, maintaining a significant share of the vote could help the party assess its position after losing power.

Why These Bypolls Matter Nationally

Although by-elections involve a limited number of seats, they can reveal shifts in voter sentiment and the strength of party organizations between major elections.

For the BJP, leads in Nagaon and the West Bengal constituencies would offer encouragement as it seeks to consolidate its position in Assam and maintain its momentum in Bengal.

For Vijay’s TVK, the Tamil Nadu contests are an early test of the ruling party’s ability to retain support when candidates change political affiliations. The results could also influence whether more AIADMK legislators consider joining the new ruling party.

Meanwhile, Congress and the TMC face questions about their ability to rebuild their electoral position in constituencies where the BJP is gaining ground.

The outcome in Puducherry’s Thattanchavady Assembly seat is another important part of the picture. AINRC candidate Ashok Anand was leading in the early trends, providing a test for the ruling AINRC-led NDA government.

Election Results: What Happens Next?

As counting continues, the Election Commission’s official figures will determine which candidates win the six contested seats. Early leads can change as additional rounds are completed, especially in closely fought constituencies such as Dharapuram.

The results will not, by themselves, determine the long-term political future of any party. However, they will provide valuable indications of voter loyalty, the effectiveness of campaign strategies, and the ability of parties to consolidate their positions after major political changes.

For now, the BJP’s leads in Assam and West Bengal and TVK’s advantage in Madurantakam are the major developments. The final results will establish whether these early trends translate into victories and how much political ground the competing parties have gained or lost.