Ukraine Peace Talks: Progress Amid Uncertainty After Intense Diplomacy

Kyiv, Ukraine – Following a flurry of high-stakes diplomacy, questions linger over whether Ukraine is any closer to peace. Recent discussions in Geneva and Abu Dhabi have sparked cautious optimism, but key issues remain unresolved.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump expressed confidence, telling reporters, “We’re getting very close to a deal.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky echoed the sentiment, noting “many prospects that can make the path to peace real,” after reviewing the outcomes of Sunday’s talks.

However, Moscow’s response has been far more measured. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov described elements of the latest draft as positive, yet flagged that “many require special discussions among experts.” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov added that it was “premature” to assume a deal was imminent.

The Diplomatic Shuffle

The talks were preceded by a leaked 28-point U.S. proposal, which called for controversial measures including territorial concessions and restrictions on Ukraine’s military. The leak drew criticism in Kyiv and prompted a rapid European counter-proposal emphasizing negotiations on territorial swaps and stronger security guarantees.

The joint U.S.-Ukraine statement after the Geneva talks described discussions as “highly productive” and emphasized the goal of a “sustainable and just peace.” Ukrainian officials reported that the contentious points on territory and NATO relations have been deferred for direct discussions between Trump and Zelensky.

Security Guarantees: A Central Concern

The biggest question remains Ukraine’s security. Analysts warn that without firm guarantees, any agreement could leave Kyiv vulnerable to future threats. A U.S. proposal reportedly models security assurances on NATO’s Article 5 principle, but details are still in flux. A multinational “reassurance force” has been discussed, yet its operational viability depends on U.S. backing.

Territorial Issues and Sovereignty

Territorial negotiations remain highly sensitive. Previous drafts suggested recognizing Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk as de facto Russian, but the European counter-proposal removed these concessions. Ukraine would now commit “not to recover its occupied sovereign territory through military means,” with talks beginning from the current front lines.

Outlook

Despite the rapid pace of diplomacy, the road ahead is uncertain. Analysts emphasize that while the Trump administration appears committed to seeking peace, fundamental issues—including territorial sovereignty, war crimes accountability, and enforceable security guarantees—still require extensive negotiation.

Experts such as Daniel Fried, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, note: “We are on a fast track to something—either a failure or a success—but it is moving fast.”

In Kyiv, the mood is cautiously optimistic. Myroslava Gongadze, Atlantic Council senior fellow, stated, “Ukraine’s delegation was satisfied to have Ukrainian interests included in negotiations, signaling willingness to engage while protecting sovereignty.”

For now, the international community watches closely as the diplomacy continues, balancing hope for a breakthrough against the reality of longstanding, unresolved conflicts.