Bihar Election 2025 LIVE: NDA Surpasses Majority Threshold in Early Trends, Prashant Kishor’s Party Leads in 3 Seats

Majority & Trends Overview

• Multiple exit-polls and trend analyses show the NDA comfortably positioned to form the next government in Bihar. For example, the agency Axis My India projects the alliance could win between 121-141 seats. Other polls show stronger projections: one outlet places the NDA on 133-167 seats, while its principal rival, the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), remains in the 70-100 seat range.
• Voter turnout has been notably high: Phase-2 turnout reportedly around 67.14%, marking a strong democratic participation.
• Despite the NDA’s strong position, commentators caution that exit-polls have been off the mark in previous Bihar elections, and the final verdict rests on the official count. Emerging Performance: Prashant Kishor’s Party

• The new Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), backed by Prashant Kishor, is reported to be leading in three seats. However, most pollsters expect the party to win only a handful of seats at best — projections range from 0 to 5 seats.
• The limited expected impact suggests that while JSP may influence the narrative and caste/vote-splits, it’s unlikely to be a major power-broker in the coming assembly.
• Observers will watch whether JSP’s leads convert into final victories, and whether its presence affects the margin of the NDA’s win or the opposition’s ability to mount a credible challenge.

What This Means for Bihar Politics

• If the NDA’s leads translate into a majority, the alliance will have a stable mandate to govern and roll out its agenda in Bihar without urgent coalition-panic.
• A stronger result for the NDA will reinforce its dominant position not just in Bihar, but nationally — serving as a confidence-booster for allied parties ahead of future elections.
• For the opposition Mahagathbandhan, the results underscore the challenge of mounting a credible alternative in a state where alliance discipline, voter mobilisation and regional narratives matter deeply.
• For the BJP and JD(U) coalition partners, the outcome may influence internal power-sharing, the chief-ministerial role and strategy for the next term.
• The high turnout, especially in newer voter-segments (youth, women), may signal evolving dynamics — parties will scrutinise which demographics contributed to which alliance’s success.

Key Developments to Watch in Coming Hours

• Constituency-by-constituency breakdown: Which seats flip and which remain safe for respective alliances will matter for trend confirmation.
• Margin of victory: Whether the NDA's win comes with large margins (mandate) or narrow margins (vulnerability) will impact future governance.
• Performance of smaller parties & independents: Even if the NDA crosses the majority mark, who wins outside the two main blocs will matter for local balance.
• Post-result reactions and government formation: How quickly and cohesively the winning alliance moves to form a government will indicate stability.
• Implications for national politics: Given Bihar’s importance and its role as a bellwether state, this election will be closely analysed for signals ahead of the 2029 general elections.