What the 11 Pollsters Predict

While individual projections vary, a broad consensus emerges across most agencies:

1. NDA Seen Ahead

A majority of the exit polls place the NDA in the lead, indicating a potentially comfortable edge across regions.
Analysts attribute this to:

·         Consolidated core voter base

·         Multi-layered booth-level organisation

·         High turnout in NDA-favoured constituencies

However, many pollsters also caution that the margins remain narrow in several seats, which could shift the final picture.

2. Mahagathbandhan Banking on a Final-Hour Shift

The Opposition Mahagathbandhan, led by RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, appears to be closely trailing in several surveys.
Key factors working in its favour include:

·         Strong youth mobilisation

·         High turnout among first-time voters

·         Anti-incumbency sentiment in select belts

Pollsters note that the MGB may outperform projections if swing constituencies break in its favour during final counting.

3. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj: Small but Not Silent

Most agencies suggest that Jan Suraaj may not command a large seat share but could influence the outcome in multi-corner fights.
The party’s impact is expected to be more regional than statewide, but enough to alter margins in a few crucial constituencies.

Power ka Laddoo: Who Will Finally Taste Victory?

Nitish Kumar

If the NDA numbers hold, it will mark another chapter in Nitish Kumar’s long and complex political journey. For many, his image of experience, governance focus and rural outreach could once again be decisive.

Tejashwi Yadav

The RJD leader remains the strongest challenger in the arena. Exit polls may not fully capture the silent support his party claims among youth and agrarian communities. Tejashwi’s camp insists that ground feedback contradicts poll predictions.

Prashant Kishor

While not projected to sweep seats, Kishor’s entry has added a new dimension to Bihar politics. His grassroots connect and reform-oriented pitch may earn him early electoral footprints that grow in future cycles.

Exit Polls vs Reality: Bihar’s History of Surprises

Bihar has a record of humbling exit poll predictions, with close contests often swinging unexpectedly during counting.
This year’s high voter turnout, especially among women and youth, increases the unpredictability.

Poll experts warn that:

·         Close seats may flip late

·         Urban-rural vote splits may surprise

·         Local issues may override alliance narratives

The only constant, they say, is Bihar’s ability to deliver political drama until the very last moment.